Syria Is Part Of A Wider Religious Sectarian War
Charlotte Keenan is Chief Executive of the Tony Blair Faith Foundation.
To kick-off this year’s Clinton Global Initiative Annual Meeting in New York, the Skoll World Forum asked some of the world’s leading experts on deforestation, public health, religion, development and the post-2015 MDGs to help set the stage for this week’s discussions on mobilizing for impact. Contributors include the Amazon Conservation Team, the Segal Family Foundation, Friends of the Global Fight Against AIDS, TB and Malaria, the World Food Programme, UNICEF, the Tony Blair Faith Foundation and more. View the whole series here.
The Syrian civil war is taking place in a region where extremism, sectarianism and the intervention of regional powers have created chaos. There is the real prospect now of a catastrophic longer war, with religion at its core, that will bring unprecedented levels of destruction to the Middle East.
The uprisings of the Arab Spring were the catalyst for this wider regional conflict. But its roots go back decades. A global jihadist movement has been drawn to centres of state breakdown and violence, and sectarian or communal violence between religious groups in the Middle East is now widespread. We need urgently to get to grips with the complex and developing religious characteristics of a conflict that is threatening the stability of the entire region. Key to that is waking up to the major role religion is playing.
There is clear evidence that religious ideology has become for the 21st Century what political ideology was for the last. The old certainties of the struggle between capitalism and communism of the Cold War seem predictable and uncomplicated in comparison. The West is uncertain. There is a specific need to ensure our governments understand the developing religious dynamics in the region.
The new movements for democracy did not marginalise the impact of religious narratives. During the Arab Spring we were unsure of how to react to legitimate popular reaction to authoritarian regimes, corrupt elites, economic decline and unemployment. Many covering the Arab Spring focused on the social media engaged, middle class and largely secular protesters and hoped the seismic changes would change the debate around religion in these countries and limit its future political influence. But instead, an already rising tide of extreme religious ideology in the region accelerated. A simmering pot has come to the boil.
The largely socio-economic and political demands of the uprisings were not met. In Egypt an authoritarian Muslim Brotherhood led government divided the country and promoted one religious group’s interests above others. In Syria, as the security state crumbled, basic law enforcement and any justice system disappeared. Armed Rebel groups did what was natural. They went back to their traditional religious and social identities to find order. And this sucked in the violent extremists armed with their populist jihadist narratives and a commitment to stimulate and prosecute a wider, regional religious conflict.
We are now seeing the dire regional implications playing out. From all corners of the world religious extremists have converged on failing states and are filling the gap their old hierarchies have left. Alongside this the opposing religious and geo-political objectives of the major regional powers are being played out.
“Hands off Syria” say the anti- war protestors outside the UK Parliament. But there are so many different hands. They would perhaps be better off marching through Tehran where they have a thirty year head start.
In the decades since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, the country has steadily built up its sphere of influence in the Middle East. This has involved a strong sectarian bid for supremacy against Saudi Arabia and support for Shia minorities (in Syria and Yemen for example) and majorities (in Bahrain, Iraq).
Syria ticks all the boxes for Iranian influence, with an anti-Western and a predominantly Shia minority government. As an added bonus it is the ideal place for Hizbullah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, to fight on the regime’s behalf – as well as providing more conventional support through its Revolutionary Guards.
Meanwhile, historical legacies determined the religious affiliation of Assad’s enemies in Syria. The Alawite predominance in the government of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad have meant that the opposition has from the beginning largely been made up of the Sunni majority.
Sunni governments in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, and Egypt under Morsi – have been keen to see the overthrow of Assad’s government, both as a minority government in a majority Sunni country, and as a means to weaken the position of Iran in the region.
So what can the international community do? There are momentous short term decisions now occupying Europe and the US on one side and Iran and Russia on the other.
There is a plan that will, supposedly take Assad’s vast and dispersed stockpile of chemical weapons out of the regime’s hands. Ultimately any long term solution requires difficult choices. What role can Iran under President Rouhani play? Is it time to reach out and support his position against that of the belligerent Supreme Leader? However unpalatable, the regional powers will be inevitably have to be involved in any solution at some point. Conflicts are resolved by talking to your enemies, not your friends. And this one will only be solved by recognising religious groups are as important to resolving it as states.
But the West should not be tempted to draw back. There is a huge body of people in the Middle East who are open-minded and connected to the world. We must be willing to genuinely support them and show we share their aspirations for a peaceful, normal, life.
To kick-off this year’s Clinton Global Initiative Annual Meeting in New York, the Skoll World Forum asked some of the world’s leading experts on deforestation, public health, religion, development and the post-2015 MDGs to help set the stage for this week’s discussions on mobilizing for impact. Contributors include the Amazon Conservation Team, the Segal Family Foundation, Friends of the Global Fight Against AIDS, TB and Malaria, the World Food Programme, UNICEF, the Tony Blair Faith Foundation and more. View the whole series here.
The Syrian civil war is taking place in a region where extremism, sectarianism and the intervention of regional powers have created chaos. There is the real prospect now of a catastrophic longer war, with religion at its core, that will bring unprecedented levels of destruction to the Middle East.
The uprisings of the Arab Spring were the catalyst for this wider regional conflict. But its roots go back decades. A global jihadist movement has been drawn to centres of state breakdown and violence, and sectarian or communal violence between religious groups in the Middle East is now widespread. We need urgently to get to grips with the complex and developing religious characteristics of a conflict that is threatening the stability of the entire region. Key to that is waking up to the major role religion is playing.
There is clear evidence that religious ideology has become for the 21st Century what political ideology was for the last. The old certainties of the struggle between capitalism and communism of the Cold War seem predictable and uncomplicated in comparison. The West is uncertain. There is a specific need to ensure our governments understand the developing religious dynamics in the region.
The new movements for democracy did not marginalise the impact of religious narratives. During the Arab Spring we were unsure of how to react to legitimate popular reaction to authoritarian regimes, corrupt elites, economic decline and unemployment. Many covering the Arab Spring focused on the social media engaged, middle class and largely secular protesters and hoped the seismic changes would change the debate around religion in these countries and limit its future political influence. But instead, an already rising tide of extreme religious ideology in the region accelerated. A simmering pot has come to the boil.
The largely socio-economic and political demands of the uprisings were not met. In Egypt an authoritarian Muslim Brotherhood led government divided the country and promoted one religious group’s interests above others. In Syria, as the security state crumbled, basic law enforcement and any justice system disappeared. Armed Rebel groups did what was natural. They went back to their traditional religious and social identities to find order. And this sucked in the violent extremists armed with their populist jihadist narratives and a commitment to stimulate and prosecute a wider, regional religious conflict.
We are now seeing the dire regional implications playing out. From all corners of the world religious extremists have converged on failing states and are filling the gap their old hierarchies have left. Alongside this the opposing religious and geo-political objectives of the major regional powers are being played out.
“Hands off Syria” say the anti- war protestors outside the UK Parliament. But there are so many different hands. They would perhaps be better off marching through Tehran where they have a thirty year head start.
In the decades since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, the country has steadily built up its sphere of influence in the Middle East. This has involved a strong sectarian bid for supremacy against Saudi Arabia and support for Shia minorities (in Syria and Yemen for example) and majorities (in Bahrain, Iraq).
Syria ticks all the boxes for Iranian influence, with an anti-Western and a predominantly Shia minority government. As an added bonus it is the ideal place for Hizbullah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon, to fight on the regime’s behalf – as well as providing more conventional support through its Revolutionary Guards.
Meanwhile, historical legacies determined the religious affiliation of Assad’s enemies in Syria. The Alawite predominance in the government of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad have meant that the opposition has from the beginning largely been made up of the Sunni majority.
Sunni governments in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, and Egypt under Morsi – have been keen to see the overthrow of Assad’s government, both as a minority government in a majority Sunni country, and as a means to weaken the position of Iran in the region.
So what can the international community do? There are momentous short term decisions now occupying Europe and the US on one side and Iran and Russia on the other.
There is a plan that will, supposedly take Assad’s vast and dispersed stockpile of chemical weapons out of the regime’s hands. Ultimately any long term solution requires difficult choices. What role can Iran under President Rouhani play? Is it time to reach out and support his position against that of the belligerent Supreme Leader? However unpalatable, the regional powers will be inevitably have to be involved in any solution at some point. Conflicts are resolved by talking to your enemies, not your friends. And this one will only be solved by recognising religious groups are as important to resolving it as states.
But the West should not be tempted to draw back. There is a huge body of people in the Middle East who are open-minded and connected to the world. We must be willing to genuinely support them and show we share their aspirations for a peaceful, normal, life.
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